England’s recent World Cup record is the tale of teams that have not been good enough to live up to any level of expectations – high or low.
Since reaching the semi-final at Italia 90, England have won only two knockout matches, the 3-0 win against Denmark in Japan in 2002 and the 1-0 win over Ecuador in Germany four years later.
England lost in the last 16 in South Africa in 2010 and were out after two group games in Brazil four years ago.
And to add to the litany of mediocrity, England have never beaten a team higher than them in the Fifa rankings since David Beckham’s penalty beat Argentina in Sapporo 16 years ago.
England were then ranked 12th and Argentina third – ironically the same as the current rankings of themselves and Belgium.
So, for all the expectations around them, England now face the moment of truth at this World Cup.
Can England’s defence cope with the best?
England’s defence and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford have had it easy at the World Cup so far against Tunisia and Panama.
Pickford has had little to do apart from pick the ball out of the net once in each game, with Everton’s goalkeeper blameless on each occasion.
England have had moments of carelessness in both games but the opposition was not good enough to punish them – that changes now.
Belgium manager Roberto Martinez may play a changed team but they will present a greater threat and test than anything England’s defenders have faced so far.
Southgate’s three-man defensive system will be under severe examination from now on and it has been a vulnerability against the best in World Cups that has constantly been England’s undoing.
Kyle Walker is relatively new to this position but his raw pace will be crucial while John Stones and Harry Maguire will need to exercise caution with their determination to play their way out of defence.
Kieran Trippier has been outstanding as England’s right wing-back while Ashley Young has performed well on the left – but Manchester United’s 32-year-old will also be facing arguably his most severe test in a position that is a relatively new conversion for him.
England’s defence has yet to face up to the world’s elite strikeforces so remains an unknown quantity. It is the moment of truth for them as well as England on Thursday – no matter what side Martinez chooses to field – and going forward.
England must offer more support to Kane
This may seem strange given England have scored eight goals in their first two games and captain Kane is currently the World Cup’s leading goalscorer with five.
In the matches ahead, if England are to get to where they want to be, Kane’s class and quality will need to be aided and abetted by even greater support and service.
Kane has scored two goals resulting from corners, two penalties and with a deflection from Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s shot to complete his hat-trick against Panama.
England have been a potent attacking force but that suggest there may be even more to come. In reality, Kane has not yet had outstanding service from open play, unlike his Belgian opposite number Romelu Lukaku, who has scored four goals.
Raheem Sterling – whose effort, ability and attitude cannot be questioned – must also change the statistic that currently reads 22 England games without a goal. Quickly.
Kane is the complete package. And there remains room for England to make even more of his talents.
England face test of temperament
Group G table: 1st England with six points, 2nd Belgium with six points, third Tunisia with no points, fourth Panama with no points
England’s serene and positive approach has been a feature of their time in Russia since they landed at their Repino base.
This decisive group game – and it matters as a measure of form, momentum and confidence as well as plotting a route forward – will test England’s big-game mentality.
Everything about this England squad suggests they are comfortable in their own skin and with each other on and off the pitch – but the full extent of those reserves may only be revealed when the heat is on and they go through a period of suffering.
The talk and body language has oozed confidence, boosted by those two wins, including their first in an opening game at a major tournament since Paraguay were beaten in Germany in 2006.
Now the pressure is on and a squad that is youthful and inexperienced at this level must prove its mettle. Southgate will be confident his emerging side can cope – we will soon find out.
Why England’s timing may be right
England’s performances have captured the imagination in Russia and raised hopes of World Cup glory, if not winning the actual tournament itself, at home.
Southgate and his players have barely put a foot wrong since they got here. A slick PR charm offensive off the pitch has been matched by results on it.
England have handled differing challenges. They ground out a victory against stubborn Tunisia before overwhelming Panama. This ability to cope and adjust will have delighted Southgate and his backroom team.
In Kane they have a striker of genuine class and a talisman captain who is a threat to any defence at this World Cup.
There is, so far, a fearlessness about England that suggests they can back up all the optimistic talk and raised aspirations.
Now England and manager Gareth Southgate face the acid test.